Finally some good news about the American economy

Posted: Feb 15, 2012 |Comments: 0 |

Cranes clutter the skyline along northern Virginia is busy carapace. On Friday evening, holiday shoppers thronged Northpark centre more in Dallas Texas buying Lego and luxury soap. Tables in the better restaurants on the west side of Los Angeles can be booked without Hollywood connections. In places, America shows clear signs of returning to a kind of economic normality.

Not long ago, a double dip into recession seemed possible. On November 22 bureau of economic analysis revised its estimate for GDP growth in the third quarter down, though still to 2% annual rate, from the earlier reported 2.5%. According to another measure of output, gross domestic income, growth was only barely positive in the second and third quarters of the year. Yet an improved outlook for release in the future is now showing up all over the economics.

America's trade deficit declined the third month running in September, thanks to rising exports. Industrial production rose strongly in October. Mortgage delinquencies in foreclosures continue to kick down. The microphone occupied homes remains weak, but construction of multi-family residential units which are attractive to renters may end the year over 50% from 2010. Residential building improvements are touching record highs.

In these improved economic conditions are helping to boost confidence. University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment has risen sharply since August. In October, growth in personal incomes accelerated. Consumers are feeling quite a bit perkier. Car sales in October to their highest level since February and are projected to recover to pre-financial crisis levels in November. Retail sales were up more than 7% in October from a year before.

the key question has long been whether growth will translate into new jobs. The signs are encouraging; payroll employment growth has accelerated from early summer, and initial claims of joblessness benefits are dropping. All told, gross domestic product is forecast to rise more than 3% per year in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, inflation is dropping. A less federal reserve with more room to focus on employment side of its mandate.

Yet the recent good news may be but a brief break in the clouds. The legislative battle over America's finances, which contributed to America some sort of, is raging again. If Congress fails to extend key stimulative measures, it may settle a vulnerable economy with fiscal drag of more than two percentage points of growth.

Retrieved from "http://www.articlesbase.com/economics-articles/finally-some-good-news-about-the-american-economy-5663014.html" David Coleman - About the Author:

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Will China And Its Economy Collapse Soon?

Posted: Dec 08, 2011 |Comments: 0 |

The question is what would an economic collapse look like in China? And will it actually happen? but before you ask that question you must realise that some parts of the Chinese economy are in serious trouble.

For the last 2 years, the Chinese government has been tightening up. They have raised interest rates several times. They have raised reserve amounts several times. They are also trying to bring down real estate, so they are also at serious risk of an all out economic collapse in the coming months.

While real estate is at risk, other parts of the Chinese economy are booming. Water treatment, agriculture, farming and many other areas. They will not be worried about the horrific real estate troubles that are coming.

So there are some sectors of the Chinese economy with serious problems, but others are booming right now, and not on the verge of collapse like in Europe or the US right now. They are in serious trouble and everyone is waking up to it. The US is about to see many economic conditions deteriorate. Especially if their government keeps printing out money and bailing out the banks, they will not end well for anyone.

The truth is that China is starting to loosen up. But that is not a good option as they have a serious inflation problem right now. They either have to beat inflation internally or they have to make their currency convertable to help them survive in the coming years.

The biggest risk in China right now is an inflation scenario, and not a deflation scenario. The worse thing about the inflation scenario is that they have a lot of money still trapped in China. Inflation has already kicked in, and the governments are not doing a great deal to keep it contained and under control. That is dangerous, but there are easy ways to profit for this type of situation.

Right now the best way to invest in China and its coming growth is to buy commodities. They have to buy cotton to produce, they have to buy lead to produce. They do not have any choice buy to buy more commodities in China as their consumption is so high and there are so many people who want to live the high life there no matter their wage or living conditions.That is why Cotton, wheat, oil and many other commodities in China are a big favourite amongst investors in the coming years.

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United States Economy Becoming More Like Germany in the Near Future?

ByPavel Podolyak

State of the Union 2012: Major intra elite infighting that we haven't seen since the 1850s as the government finally brought the economy out of a tailspin and into a very precarious horizontal flying position susceptible to unusual political shocks.

It is election year in America and 18.3 million voters that matter are beginning to get involved in the future of planetary development:

(16 million households with $100,000-$1 million in assets worth $5.6 trillion total
2.2 million households with $1 million-$10 million in assets worth $6 trillion total
100,000 households with $10 million+ in assets worth $2.2 trillion total)

The other 96 million household block with less than $100,000 in assets worth $3.4 trillion total generally takes political cues from the movers/community role models and doesn't have enough cohesion and purchasing power to afford favors from the white house.

I started writing in 2009, shortly after 16 million small time shareholder households showed surprising mobilization (possibly indirectly helped by factions in the military that got truly scared by the long term implications of the financial crisis and who thought McCain wont be prudent). Time to look back and see what was gotten right, what wrong, and where we are today.

Obama had compared steering United States to making very small degree changes in direction of a large cruise ship. Short term, nothing appears to change but on a 2-3 decade horizon, tiny movements of the wheel to the left or right can bring the ship to surprisingly different destinations. The intensity of elite factions fighting over this wheel (and therefore their small shareholder auxiliaries/proxies also fighting) has been intensifying in first 2 years as predicted. However, I dramatically underestimated just how paralyzing and intense it got (troubling intra elite infighting that we haven't seen since the 1850s).

Scramble for resources saw well publicized spats between California and Texas, gridlock among shareholders' representatives in Congress to the point of using default as a bargaining chip(!), popular 4 star general fired for assuming resources for Afghanistan will continue indefinitely, Lockheed Martin relocating headquarters from California to DC, and CNN totally joining with NBC as propaganda outlet of the shareholder faction in control of the White House currently.
It also appears that the White House was either unable or too incompetent to provide enough favors to friendly elite factions in swing states to aid in reelection (the Mormon from Detroit leads by 1% on average in swing states while the 16 battleground states have had an average 16% drop in housing prices without much specifically focused federal help).

Recently in 2012, this infighting has quieted down somewhat since the economy has been improving for some time now for the relevant voting blocks. Rather than using the cruise ship analogy again, lets use one of a B-52 Stratofortress taking a nosedive in 2008. It took years for the old but well built giant plane to be brought out of the nosedive, under some control, and to level its flight so it doesn't smash into the ground. Many, perhaps most of its parts have rusted and bolts have gotten lose (insufficient care was taken of the plane for some time). Recently, pieces of the plane were thrown out by the crew with plans to throw out more as the pilots frantically wrestle with the controls (military leaving Iraq and parts of Europe, Ares 5 program being abandoned, various cost cutting that would have been unthinkable before the nosedive, etc). This lightened the load and reduced the strain on the superstructure somewhat.

A process had also began to tighten the bolts in the engine room. We saw Putin-esque negotiating practices between federal center of force and auto industry, private deal making with British Petroleum, and getting the 5 major banks to throw $25 billion to settle the fraudclosure investigation. Board of Bank of America alone handed over $12 billion to get feds off their backs. We even had Robert Gates begin to crackdown on business tie corruption among retired generals. It doesn't matter whether the executive branch finally has more room to maneuver or has been purposefully goaded to become more forceful, the fact remains that things are now moving along a bit quicker.

I predicted that IF Federal center of force:

a) does not attempt some sort of debt restructuring before 2012 elections and
b) does not purposefully and methodically begin the road towards emulating Germany's hybrid mid level state capitalist system (where major business shareholders, labor, and state always sit around the table to jointly negotiate national strategy)

THEN we may see social instability rise dramatically which would then make purposeful recovery and lifting of the plane into new heights a lot more difficult longer term (by late 2020s).

As for a), the feds have 1.1 trillion shortfall to fund this year and are getting creative again by announcing plans to introduce brand new floating rate treasury bills to try to bring new investors that are not currently content with near zero interest.

As for b), the recent state of the union speech hinted at the federal government becoming the navigator, enabler, conditional supporter, and even occasional manager of large business. Interesting proposals are mandating that high schoolers legally remain in school until age of consent and pushing companies to cooperate with local governments to begin blue collar training in while in school. It demonstrates that American elites have truly run out of their own ideas and are now resorting to catch up copying efforts of FDRist elite clusters in other parts of the developed world, (ironic if not tragic considering Washington DC educated and pushed more advanced FDRism on Germany and Japan).

This year we will see whether waiting this long to announce that German FDRist model is somewhat desirable was a prudent strategy for the factions backing Obama or whether they'll regret that they didn't go for somebody more forceful like Hillary (who proved herself recently as de facto second president by beginning worldwide decolonization while saving face. Here's a small example of the process happening in many parts of the world. Whether Japanese are telling to leave while allowing US to save face or US leaving while conveniently developing difficulties in maintaining imperial presence is irrelevant. The causal flux is hard to disentangle. What matters is that DC is finding ways/reasons to reduce spending.)

Obviously many high net worth shareholders in places like Texas will not be happy with a strategic shift towards a more German/French/ style capitalism. Their frustrations are further compounded by the total disintegration of GOP as a national party (which is being demonstrated in the current primary race by regional shareholder clans pushing their candidates to the last and possibly towards brokered convention and oblivion). The frustration becomes even more acute considering the dramatic demographic and economic shift to the south and west away from the regions of traditional power (northeast and north in general). It is not too far fetched that the financial backers from newly empowered states may ask their political appointees to seek greater economic autonomy for a number of states. It'll be interesting to see how accommodating the feds will be if Obama is reelected (even FDRist federal Germany has states like Bavaria whose shareholders are allowed to run their business a lot more freely from directives of Berlin).

Much will depend if the southern and western shareholders choose to behave themselves by not purposefully damaging the economy during the fragile "plane still sputtering and flying horizontally trying to gather momentum to eventually lift" phase. It may very well be that the plane is too decrepit/obsolete to reach certain altitudes anyway but purposeful undermining of the engine room (to get somebody like the phoney from Detroit in) may very well smash it. On a related note, prime minister Netanyahu knows all this and may wish to indirectly aid some American shareholders by creating a situation where provoked Iran drives the price of oil up, throws a wrench into the American recovery process, and thus allows a more militarist GOP candidate to win on the platform of Obama's weakness and insufficient economic management. Much will depend on how carefully Panetta manages to make clear that Netanyahu will clearly be on his own and perhaps even be given the Mubarak treatment if Netanyahu gambles with getting involved in US economy and election process.

So that's 2012 for now. Lots of egos involved and real economic recovery roots actually being seen JUST as people are finally becoming educated about the horror of it all. A delicate situation considering humans usually start getting restless just when things are perceived to be improving but are seen as not improving fast enough. That is classic political science (Soviet economy began to improve in 1989 after 4-5 years of major intra elite infighting). This time around there are major players in the world who want to help the plane chug along for at least a while longer while they help themselves to some spare parts. We'll see how it holds up.

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Pavel Podolyak

Email Address:SubscribeEconomics Article FeedFind More ArticlesSearchRecent ArticlesUsing The Yield Curve Data To Predict GDP GrowthWhat Is Quantitative Easing and Does It Work?Student Loans Leading To More BankruptciesThe Four Economic SeasonsUS Economic Trends for 2012How to Compete With a Computer in Economic AnalysisGlobal Economic Trends for 2012The Risks of Being a LenderSovereign Debt Problems - United States Or Europe, Who Is Worse Off?Baby-Boom BombSubmitted On February 11, 2012. Viewed 2 times. Word count: 1,517.

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When Europe's Economy Does Fully Implode Who Else Will It Take Down With It?

ByLance Winslow

Some folks have stated that it is possible that Europe can get through this economic crisis without imploding, but I tend to disagree with that assessment. And each time the EU works to shore up one of its challenges in its banking sector, with its currency, or in negotiation with one of the countries known as the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) - all I notice is that proverbial can being kicked farther down the road. In fact, it is adding insult to injury for bondholders, investors, and it is causing chaos on the global market.

China has already lost a huge amount of exports and retracted from its 10% year-over-year growth goals, and is now looking at more like 7% growth. It is quite possible that they will not even attain that, even at a time when their 12-year plan calls for producing 100 million more jobs in rural China, amongst other things such as; taking over the alternative energy sector, the aerospace industry, the information technology industry, and the auto industry from the rest of the world.

Those are pretty lofty goals, and one might have been worried about all that, but with the European crisis cutting into their export numbers, and severely curtailing their growth, it looks doubtful. Further, China has its own worries such as all of those bad loans which occurred during their stimulus after the global financial crisis, and the pervasive corruption in their cronies state-run capitalist system. So, they won't be bailing out the EuroZone and all the talk of such is a mere fantasy.

Of course, China isn't the only one who has a challenge, Japan isn't batting 1000 either, and their economy is intermixed with the EU, along with both of their banking systems.

And if you think the United States is free for harm, you would be wrong. Not only is the United States, Japan, and China all on the hook for the IMF, they've also agreed to work with Europe to help save it. Is it even possible?

The problem is so vast, and so deep, and many of the nations in the Euro zone are not economically viable, they don't take in enough tax revenue to support their governments, and exist, much less deliver on their socialist promises to the masses based on borrowed money, and now they are on severely borrowed time. Even if their debt was washed out, they still would be a future risk - is what I am saying - they are not viable, or temporarily sustainable for that matter.

Standard & Poor's downgraded six of the top US banks based on their exposure to European debt, and due to the inter-banking system, which leaves everyone on the hook. If Europe goes down, and fully Implodes, it could take the whole rest of the world with it. We should just be glad here in the United States that we will not be hurt as bad as the others, but we will not come out completely unscathed. Indeed I hope you will please consider all this and think on it.

Lance Winslow has launched a new provocative series of eBooks on Future Concepts. Lance Winslow is a retired Founder of a Nationwide Franchise Chain, and now runs the Online Think Tank; http://www.worldthinktank.net

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Email Address:SubscribeEconomics Article FeedFind More ArticlesSearchRecent ArticlesHow To Solve The Homeless SituationProgressivism Isn't Progress, VIIIHow Secure Is Your "Secure" Job?A True Comparison Of Increasing Debt Between Bush And Obama AdministrationsHow To Compete With ChinaWould Einstein Think Us Insane?What Will Happen If Greece Defaults?A Cluster of (Minor) ErrorsThe US Recovery Is Producing SurprisesA Sigh Of Relief For The Economic Status Of The USSubmitted On December 03, 2011. Viewed 13 times. Word count: 516.

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Winslow, Lance".".3 Dec. 2011EzineArticles.com.26 Jan. 2012 .APA Style Citation:
Winslow, L. (2011, December 3). . Retrieved January 26, 2012, from http://ezinearticles.com/?When-­Europes-­Economy-­Does-­Fully-­Implode-­Who-­Else-­Will-­It-­Take-­Down-­With-­It?&id=6732743Chicago Style Citation:
Winslow, Lance "." EzineArticles.com. http://ezinearticles.com/?When-­Europes-­Economy-­Does-­Fully-­Implode-­Who-­Else-­Will-­It-­Take-­Down-­With-­It?&id=6732743EzineArticles.com© 2012 EzineArticles.com
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